What the Trump win could mean for wireless and spectrum

When president-elect Trump is sworn in for his second term on January 20, 2025, his administration will take over wireless policy. We asked analysts what to expect on spectrum, open RAN, 5G, 6G and more. Here's what they told us.

Spectrum Sharing

Spectrum policy in the U.S. will require more sharing of radio frequencies between different operators and groups regardless, Joe Madden, lead analyst at Mobile Experts, told Fierce on the phone this morning.

As 6G appears on the horizon, Madden said, “The problem in the U.S. for spectrum policy is the lack of available spectrum to work. Regardless of your politics, there are satellite users, military users and other people that use the spectrum bands. I think those technical issues of how to share spectrum with companies and work with incumbents and mobile terrestrial users will take precedence over any political preferences,” Madden said.

There's also the issue of the Federal Communications Commission's (FCC) lapsed spectrum auction authority. In practice, that means that even if there were available airwaves, the FCC can't auction any more spectrum until that authority is renewed by Congress.

Musk in the air?

Elon Musk could be a beneficiary of any spectrum wranglings in the next administration, Madden noted. “Musk has been been looking for more spectrum for the Starlink satellites that will be in direct competition with mobile terrestrial systems Madden stated, adding "we will see" how things shake out on that front.

"One worry is that a prominent role of Elon Musk in the administration may impact the telecom policy since he is a player in the industry and has obvious interests," Monica Paolini, principal at Senza Fili said in an email.

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What the Trump win could mean for the BEAD program

Musk could also benefit from a Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program that is more general and has less of a wired focus, Recon Analytics Founder Roger Entner noted.

“BEAD will become much more technology agnostic and much less of a fiber focus, which will help Mr. Musk and [fixed wireless access]," he said on a phone call.

Open RAN

Though the new president will likely bring plenty of new policy, Madden said that the Biden administration’s drive towards open radio access networks (RAN) would likely be maintained — at least for the short term — by the Trump team.

“There has been a lot of funding coming through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration towards open RAN, directed at military bases and government sites. I don’t think that’s going to change in the short term,” he said.

Entner noted that the overall idea of using open RAN to defeat Huawei will have “less impact” in a second Trump administration.

“China is disengaging with us,” he concluded. “The leverage we have right now is less than we had at the start of the first Trump administration."